File:Global_warming_hiatus.gif
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Global_warming_hiatus.gif (509 × 370 pixels, file size: 500 KB, MIME type: image/gif, looped, 42 frames, 18 s)
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Summary
DescriptionGlobal warming hiatus.gif |
English: By selecting or cherry-picking data, the trend of global warming appears to mistakenly stop, as in the period from 1998 to 2012, which is actually a random contrary fluctuation. |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Physikinger |
Other versions | German version File:Vermeindlicher Stillstand der globalen Erwaermung.gif |
GIF development InfoField | This plot was created with Matplotlib. |
Source code InfoField | Python code# This source code is public domain
import numpy
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import imageio
year_T = {
# https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
# GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius base period: 1951-1980
# sources: GHCN-v4 1880-07/2021 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-07/2021
# using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment
# Divide by 100 to get changes in degrees Celsius (deg-C).
# Year J-D (annual mean Temperature Jan to Dec)
1880: -16, 1881: -8, 1882: -11, 1883: -17, 1884: -28,
1885: -33, 1886: -31, 1887: -36, 1888: -17, 1889: -10,
1890: -35, 1891: -22, 1892: -27, 1893: -31, 1894: -30,
1895: -22, 1896: -11, 1897: -11, 1898: -27, 1899: -17,
1900: -8, 1901: -15, 1902: -28, 1903: -37, 1904: -47,
1905: -26, 1906: -22, 1907: -38, 1908: -43, 1909: -48,
1910: -43, 1911: -44, 1912: -36, 1913: -34, 1914: -15,
1915: -14, 1916: -36, 1917: -46, 1918: -30, 1919: -28,
1920: -27, 1921: -19, 1922: -29, 1923: -27, 1924: -27,
1925: -22, 1926: -11, 1927: -22, 1928: -20, 1929: -36,
1930: -16, 1931: -9, 1932: -16, 1933: -29, 1934: -13,
1935: -20, 1936: -15, 1937: -3, 1938: 0, 1939: -2,
1940: 13, 1941: 19, 1942: 7, 1943: 9, 1944: 20,
1945: 9, 1946: -7, 1947: -3, 1948: -11, 1949: -11,
1950: -17, 1951: -7, 1952: 1, 1953: 8, 1954: -13,
1955: -14, 1956: -19, 1957: 5, 1958: 6, 1959: 3,
1960: -3, 1961: 6, 1962: 3, 1963: 5, 1964: -20,
1965: -11, 1966: -6, 1967: -2, 1968: -8, 1969: 5,
1970: 3, 1971: -8, 1972: 1, 1973: 16, 1974: -7,
1975: -1, 1976: -10, 1977: 18, 1978: 7, 1979: 16,
1980: 26, 1981: 32, 1982: 14, 1983: 31, 1984: 16,
1985: 12, 1986: 18, 1987: 32, 1988: 39, 1989: 27,
1990: 45, 1991: 40, 1992: 22, 1993: 23, 1994: 31,
1995: 45, 1996: 33, 1997: 46, 1998: 61, 1999: 38,
2000: 39, 2001: 53, 2002: 63, 2003: 62, 2004: 53,
2005: 67, 2006: 63, 2007: 66, 2008: 54, 2009: 65,
2010: 72, 2011: 61, 2012: 65, 2013: 67, 2014: 74,
2015: 90, 2016: 101, 2017: 92, 2018: 85, 2019: 97,
2020: 102, 2021: 85, 2022: 89,
}
x, y = (numpy.array(list(x()), dtype='d') for x in (year_T.keys, year_T.values))
y = y / 100
xMinFocus, xMaxFocus = 1998, 2012
i0 = x.tolist().index(xMinFocus)
i1 = x.tolist().index(xMaxFocus) + 1
nPoly = 4
phi = numpy.array([x**i for i in range(nPoly)])
A = phi @ phi.T
b = phi @ y
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPoly = c @ phi
phiHist = phi[:,:i1]
A = phiHist @ phiHist.T
b = phiHist @ y[:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyHist = c @ phi
nPoly = 3
phiF = phi[:nPoly,i0:i1]
A = phiF @ phiF.T
b = phiF @ y[i0:i1]
c = numpy.linalg.solve(A, b)
yPolyFocus = c @ phi[:nPoly]
yMinTotal, yMaxTotal = numpy.min(y) - 0.02, numpy.max(y) + 0.02
xMinTotal, xMaxTotal = numpy.min(x), numpy.max(x)
yMinFocus, yMaxFocus = numpy.min(y[i0:i1]) - 0.02, numpy.max(y[i0:i1]) + 0.02
plt.xlim(xMinFocus-0.1, xMaxFocus+0.1)
# Frame-Parameter:
# t: Frame duration
# trans1: transition 0 to 1 towards full time frame
# trans2: transition 0 to 1 towards full data set
# showTrend: Trend (0: None, 1: Zoom, 2: full history, 3: full time frame)
parameters = [ # (t, trans1, trans2, showTrend)
(1, 0.0, 0.0, 0),
(4, 0.0, 0.0, 1),
*[(0.1, t**2, 0.0, 1) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,25)],
(1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1),
(0.5, 1.0, 0.0, 0),
(1, 1.0, 0.0, 2),
*[(0.1, 1.0, t,2) for t in numpy.linspace(0,1,10)],
(0.5, 1.0, 1.0, 2),
(6, 1.0, 1.0, 3),
]
images = []
duration = []
for t, trans1, trans2, showTrend in parameters:
duration.append(t)
zoom = 4*(1-trans1) + 1*trans1
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(5.1,3.7), dpi=100)
plt.rc('axes', titlesize=14, labelsize=12)
plt.rc('xtick', labelsize=11)
plt.rc('ytick', labelsize=11)
plt.rc('legend', fontsize=16)
if showTrend == 1: plt.plot(x[i0-15:], yPolyFocus[i0-15:], 'r--', label='Trend')
if showTrend == 2: plt.plot(x, yPolyHist, 'b--', label='Trend')
if showTrend == 3: plt.plot(x, yPoly, 'b--', label='Trend')
iMax = int(i1 + trans2*(len(x)-i1))
plt.plot(x[:iMax], y[:iMax], 'C0.-', alpha=0.8, linewidth=0.8*zoom, markersize=6*zoom)
plt.plot(x[i0:i1], y[i0:i1], 'C3.-', linewidth=0.805*zoom, markersize=6.05*zoom)
plt.grid(True, alpha=0.7)
yMax = yMaxFocus + trans1*(yMaxTotal-yMaxFocus)
xMax = xMaxFocus + trans1*(xMaxTotal-xMaxFocus)
xMin = xMinFocus*(1-trans1) + xMinTotal*trans1
plt.xlim(xMin-0.1, xMax+0.1+1*trans1)
plt.ylim(yMinFocus*(1-trans1) + yMinTotal*trans1, yMaxFocus*(1-trans1) + yMax*trans1+0.03*trans1)
plt.text(0.02, 0.89, '%i - %i'%(xMin, x[iMax-1]), transform=plt.gca().transAxes, fontsize=20)
plt.title('Global Warming Hiatus')
plt.xlabel('Year')
plt.ylabel('Relative Global Temperature (°C)')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_label_coords(-0.13, 0.5)
if showTrend: leg = plt.legend(frameon=False, loc='lower right')
fig.subplots_adjust(
top=0.9,
bottom=0.13,
left=0.15,
right=0.95,
hspace=0.2,
wspace=0.2
)
fig.canvas.draw()
s, (width, height) = fig.canvas.print_to_buffer()
images.append(numpy.array(list(s), numpy.uint8).reshape((height, width, 4)))
fig.clf()
plt.close('all')
# Save GIF animation
fileOut = 'Global_warming_hiatus.gif'
imageio.mimsave(fileOut, images, duration=duration)
# Optimize GIF size
from pygifsicle import optimize
optimize(fileOut, colors=20)
|
Licensing
I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication. | |
The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/deed.enCC0Creative Commons Zero, Public Domain Dedicationfalsefalse |
Items portrayed in this file
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1 September 2021
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File history
Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.
Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 20:52, 17 April 2023 | 509 × 370 (500 KB) | Physikinger | Shorter red line | |
18:36, 13 April 2023 | 509 × 370 (511 KB) | Physikinger | Extrapolation, Timing | ||
21:01, 12 April 2023 | 509 × 370 (510 KB) | Physikinger | Update 2022, single zoom transition | ||
12:37, 7 September 2021 | 509 × 370 (511 KB) | Physikinger | Smaller file size | ||
22:09, 6 September 2021 | 509 × 370 (617 KB) | Physikinger | Fixed label, less colors | ||
19:01, 1 September 2021 | 509 × 370 (884 KB) | Physikinger | Uploaded own work with UploadWizard |
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